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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 7
2018-10-21 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 210230 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 ...TINY VICENTE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 95.0W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM W OF TAPACHULA MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern and southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 95.0 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-southwest is possible on Sunday, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to move generally along or near the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible through the weekend, followed by gradual weakening by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between Monday and Wednesday, Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches along the coast of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-10-21 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210230 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.0W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 95.0W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-20 22:33:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 20:33:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 21:21:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-10-20 22:32:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 202032 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 The cloud pattern associated with Vicente is quite peculiar. In addition on being unusually small, it has an intermittent eye feature surrounded by moderate to shallow convection. A very useful ASCAT pass a few hours ago showed that Vicente has a very tight circulation with maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, and the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 20 n mi from the center. On this basis, and an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. Now that the circulation is farther from land, the chances of some slight strengthening have increased in the next 24 to 36 hours before Vicente encounters the larger circulation of Willa. In fact, most of the global models advertise that in about 3 days or so Vicente will dissipate, and so does the official forecast. Satellite fixes indicate that Vicente is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 8 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west or even west-southwest track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern portion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the northwest and north. Vicente should become absorbed by the larger Willa and dissipation could occur earlier than indicated in the forecast at this time given the solution of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 14.6N 94.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.0N 95.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 13.7N 97.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-20 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT REMAINS QUITE TINY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 the center of Vicente was located near 14.6, -94.3 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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