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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-22 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 13.9, -98.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 11
2018-10-22 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 220233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE AND ITS REMNANTS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 98.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 98.7 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward turn is expected early Monday, followed by a turn toward the northwest by late Monday. A northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to approach the southwestern coast of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast, and Vicente is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday night or Tuesday. Vicente's circulation is expected to dissipate near the southwestern coast of Mexico by Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-10-22 04:33:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 98.7W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.3N 99.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 98.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-21 22:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 20:37:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 21:21:56 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-10-21 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the low-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a ragged-looking area of deep convection. Data from a recent scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 35 kt. North-northeasterly vertical wind shear should prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global models show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days. The official forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a depression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model consensus. Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown here. The storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9 kt. Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 14.2N 97.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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