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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 8
2018-10-21 10:44:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 210844 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 14.3N 97.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.4N 99.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 96.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-21 04:32:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 02:32:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 21 Oct 2018 03:21:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-10-21 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 210231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Vicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl producing intermittent bursts of deep convection. We have expected an imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24 hours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion estimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the generally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast that a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and even that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is imminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but is a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours, based on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the west-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente is steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much larger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a significantly different and much farther west track for Vicente. While this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does illustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased since earlier today. The intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size of Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in intensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity guidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds over the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and interaction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and eventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the intensity forecast in this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 14.8N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 14.4N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 14.3N 97.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 14.9N 99.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-10-21 04:31:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 210231 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) X(19) X(19) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 12(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ANGEL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 95W 34 24 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-21 04:30:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TINY VICENTE PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 the center of Vicente was located near 14.8, -95.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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