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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2018-10-22 10:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220835 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 100W 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-10-22 10:35:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 220835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 99.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics
2018-10-22 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 02:35:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 03:21:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-10-22 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 220234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the low-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather elongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain unchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is expected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show the cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC forecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a depression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but it wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner. Regardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding. The initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09. Vicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through dissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large, as they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this cycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of the previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 13.9N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-10-22 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 220234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0300 UTC MON OCT 22 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 9 11(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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