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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-21 16:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 14.4, -96.8 with movement WSW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 9
2018-10-21 16:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 211442 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 96.8W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 96.8 West. Vicente is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the west is expected by this evening, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest by Monday evening. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Vicente is a small tropical cyclone with tropical-storm-force winds only extending outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches near the coast of southern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-10-21 16:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 211442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Vicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern consists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized convection over the southwestern portion of the circulation. There is little evidence of banding features at this time. The current intensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. North-northeasterly vertical shear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of days. Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the land mass of Mexico by mid-week. Satellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar indicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west, and the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt. There has been little change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it. Vicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while moving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 14.4N 96.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-10-21 16:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 211442 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) X(28) X(28) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 14(39) X(39) X(39) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 8(32) X(32) X(32) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 X 32(32) 21(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 15N 100W 50 X 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 100W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-10-21 16:42:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 211442 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 96.8W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 96.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.2N 98.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.4N 99.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 96.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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