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Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2018-10-21 22:35:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 212035 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 100W 34 2 24(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

2018-10-21 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...VICENTE WEAKENS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 the center of Vicente was located near 14.2, -97.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 10

2018-10-21 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 212035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018 ...VICENTE WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 97.9W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 97.9 West. Vicente is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to remain just offshore or near the southern coast of Mexico through Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches over portions of Guerrero, Michoaca, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 10

2018-10-21 22:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 2100 UTC SUN OCT 21 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.9W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.9W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 97.4W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.2N 99.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 97.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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