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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2020-11-14 09:39:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 6(21) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 20(41) 8(49) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 5(23) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 35(39) 13(52) 2(54) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 8(28) 1(29) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) 1(16) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 15(24) 5(29) 1(30) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-11-14 09:38:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IOTA...AND A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTRIES. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 74.8W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 75.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 13.9N 76.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 78.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 80.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 82.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.5N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 74.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-14 03:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 02:41:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Nov 2020 03:31:40 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 140240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Satellite images show that Iota has changed little during the past several hours. Deep convection is organized in fragmented bands around the center, except in the northwestern quadrant where there is a dry slot. All of the satellite intensity estimates are around 35 kt, and therefore, the initial intensity is held at that value. Iota has been drifting to the south-southwest during the past several hours, however, the steering currents are expected to become more pronounced soon. A strong and sprawling mid-level ridge currently centered over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward and build to the north of the tropical cyclone. Since this ridging is expected to remain well established to the north of Iota during the next several days, a general westward motion is expected through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast takes the core of Iota to the Nicaragua and Honduras coasts in about 3 days. However, conditions are expected to deteriorate along that part of the coast before the center arrives. The latest models are in fairly good agreement, except for the HWRF which is a northern outlier, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is a little slower than the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Iota is expected to move west and dissipate on Saturday. This should leave the storm in favorable conditions of 29-30 C waters, and in an air mass of low wind shear and high moisture this weekend and early next week. These conditions support steady to possibly rapid intensification until Iota makes landfall. The main question is how strong will Iota become before it crosses the coast. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 55 percent chance of Iota strengthening 65 kt or more before it makes landfall, which is about 11 times the climatological mean. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and shows Iota strengthening to a major hurricane in about 60 hours. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area on Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Iota will likely lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of northern Colombia and Central America. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be exacerbated by Hurricane Eta's recent effects there. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 13.6N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iota (AT1/AL312020)
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 13 the center of Iota was located near 13.6, -74.2 with movement SSW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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