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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140240 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THAT AREA ON SATURDAY. INTERESTS IN SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 74.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 74.1W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 74.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.7N 76.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.0N 77.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.3N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 81.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 82.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.8N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.3N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 74.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Iota Public Advisory Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140240 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iota Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 1000 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 ...IOTA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... ...RISK OF DANGEROUS WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND RAINFALL IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINNING MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 74.2W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Nicaragua, Honduras should monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of that area on Saturday. Interests in San Andres and Providencia should also monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iota was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 74.2 West. Iota is moving toward the south-southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue overnight. A westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected to begin by late Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, Iota will move across the central Caribbean Sea during the next day or so, and approach the coasts of Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is likely over the weekend, and the system is forecast to be a major hurricane when it approaches Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Across Honduras and northern Nicaragua: 8 to 16 inches or 200 to 400 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches or 500 mm. Across Costa Rica, Panama, and northern Colombia, southern Nicaragua, Belize, Guatemala, and El Salvador: 3 to 6 inches or 75 to 150 mm, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches or 250 mm. This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Across Jamaica and southern Haiti: 1 to 3 inches or 25 to 75 mm. SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect portions of the coast of Colombia, and the southern coasts of Hispaniola and Jamaica during the next day or two. Swells will begin to reach the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iota Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-11-14 03:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 140240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM IOTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IOTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 11(24) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 24(35) 11(46) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 18(53) 3(56) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 3(30) PUERTO CABEZAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 3(18) BLUEFIELDS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BLUEFIELDS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 22(29) 6(35) 1(36) SAN ANDRES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) X(15) SAN ANDRES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) LIMON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) COLON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Iota Graphics
2020-11-13 21:46:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 20:46:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Nov 2020 21:32:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iota Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-11-13 21:44:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season. The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters, in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity during that time period. The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight or early Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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