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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-03 16:57:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Sep 2017 14:57:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Sep 2017 15:25:25 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 17
2017-09-03 16:52:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031452 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 The eye of Irma is a little less distinct in geostationary satellite images this morning, which suggests that the intensity of the hurricane may be fluctuating yet again. However, the initial wind speed is maintained at 100 kt for this advisory, which is close to a consensus of the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates. The first reconnaissance mission, a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hurricane aircraft, is scheduled to depart Barbados for tail Doppler radar mission into Irma late this afternoon and should provide additional information on Irma's intensity by this evening. A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is steering Irma west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. This general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. After that time, Irma is forecast to turn westward, then west-northwestward in about 72 hours as it approaches the western portion of the ridge. The various consensus aids are generally a little slower than the previous advisory, but there cross-track differences are small. As a result, the updated NHC track is very similar to the previous advisory, and is close to a consensus of the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF, but is not as far south as the latest runs of the UKMET or ECMWF. Irma is forecast to move over slightly warmer SSTs and into a moistening mid-level environment. These conditions, along with a favorable upper-level wind pattern, should allow for gradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. However, eyewall replacement cycles could result in fluctuations in intensity during the next several days. While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor Irma's progress. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves near or over the northeastern Leeward Islands by the middle of this week, and could cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents on some islands. Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for some of these islands later today or tonight. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 2. Direct impacts from Irma are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later this week, and tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for these islands by tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 3. The possibility of direct impacts from Irma in Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas later this week is increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 4. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.7N 48.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.1N 50.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 16.6N 52.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 16.4N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 16.7N 56.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 18.2N 61.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 20.4N 67.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2017-09-03 16:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 031451 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 43(46) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 46(58) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 3(38) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 5(42) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 3(20) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 43(48) 2(50) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 2(29) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) 2(51) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 1(28) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 47(61) 2(63) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 2(37) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 1(24) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 33(47) 1(48) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 50(50) 26(76) X(76) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 30(50) X(50) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) X(31) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 13(61) X(61) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 14(37) X(37) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) X(24) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 67(68) 8(76) X(76) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) 10(51) X(51) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 8(33) X(33) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 7(65) X(65) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 6(39) X(39) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 5(26) 1(27) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 4(46) X(46) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 2(22) X(22) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-03 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IRMA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 3 the center of Irma was located near 17.7, -48.4 with movement WSW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 17
2017-09-03 16:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 031450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 ...CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IRMA MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 48.4W ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Irma. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of these islands later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Irma is moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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