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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 18
2017-09-03 22:52:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 032052 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 The satellite presentation of Irma has degraded slightly since this morning with the eye becoming less defined. There is evidence of some northerly flow beneath the cirrus outflow, which may be disrupting the inner core and preventing Irma from strengthening. The latest consensus of the Dvorak satellite estimates suggest that the 100 kt initial intensity could be a little generous, but with a NOAA aircraft headed into the hurricane it is best to wait until data from that mission is received before making any adjustment to the initial wind speed. Irma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory, but the longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or 260/12 kt. A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic should steer Irma westward to west-southwestward during the next couple of days. After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest should occur as Irma approaches the western portion of the Atlantic ridge. The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively small through day 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the southern side of the guidance envelope, with the GFS near the middle of the envelope. The latest NHC track is once again near the consensus of these typically reliable models, which is between the southern edge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model consensus. The updated track is not very different from the previous advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of the previous forecast. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center. In fact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous advisory indicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind field has expanded, especially over the northern semicircle. As a result, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical storm watches may be required on Monday. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. 2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. 3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.6N 49.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 16.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 17.3N 58.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 19.1N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 23.0N 73.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2017-09-03 22:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 032051 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 45(48) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 47(59) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 32(65) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 26(40) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 14(39) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 1(35) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 2(40) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 28(48) 1(49) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) X(26) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 20(49) 1(50) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 1(27) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 18(60) X(60) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 19(36) X(36) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) 1(24) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 12(46) X(46) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) X(23) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 66(69) 3(72) 1(73) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 4(47) X(47) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 4(31) X(31) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 3(56) X(56) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 63(70) 1(71) X(71) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 1(48) X(48) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 51(57) 1(58) X(58) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 29(34) 1(35) X(35) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-03 22:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 3 the center of Irma was located near 17.6, -49.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 18
2017-09-03 22:50:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 032050 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 ...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO IRMA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 49.8W ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten. The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Martin and Saint Barthelemy. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten * Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy Interests in the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Irma. Additional Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches may be required for portions of this area on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 49.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected through Monday night. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is forecast to approach the northern Leeward Islands late Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 18
2017-09-03 22:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 032050 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND NEVIS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND NEVIS * SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN * SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. ADDITIONAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON MONDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 49.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 150SW 390NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 49.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 49.2W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.2N 51.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 55.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 58.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.1N 63.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 90SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.2N 68.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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