je.st

Home › irma

Tag: irma

Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 17

2017-09-03 16:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 031449 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.4W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..390NE 150SE 150SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 48.4W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 47.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 50.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.6N 52.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 54.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N 56.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N 61.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 20.4N 67.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 48.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number advisory forecast hurricane

Hurricane Irma Graphics

2017-09-03 10:54:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Sep 2017 08:54:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Sep 2017 09:22:45 GMT

Tags: graphics hurricane irma hurricane graphics

Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 16

2017-09-03 10:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030849 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017 Irma's convective pattern has improved slightly overnight. Very cold cloud tops completely encircle the eye, which has warmed and become a bit clearer in infrared satellite images. The initial intensity is raised to 100 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Irma has been losing latitude since yesterday due to strong high pressure to its north, and the initial motion is now west- southwestward, or 255/13 kt. The hurricane is likely to continue moving on this trajectory for the next 36 hours, after which time it should gradually turn toward the west and then west-northwest on days 3-5 when it reaches the western extent of the ridge. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the first 48 hours, showing Irma bottoming out around 16.5N. However, the track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a turn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding westward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model consensus at the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the better-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA, so additional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories. The environment ahead of Irma appears conducive for gradual strengthening for at least the next 2 to 3 days, with increasing sea surface temperatures and a moistening in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. We may still observe fluctuations in intensity, but overall, the model guidance seems to suggest a general upward trend with a peak in intensity possibly occurring around day 3. This type of intensification would coincide with the timing of Irma's west-southwest to westward motion, a pattern which we have observed in other west-southwestward-moving hurricanes in the past (i.e., Katrina, Joaquin, Fernanda, etc.). The NHC intensity forecast is bumped up slightly, showing a peak in intensity on day 3, and is largely a blend of the ICON intensity consensus and HCCA. While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor Irma's progress. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles over the next few days, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.0N 47.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.5N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.8N 51.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 16.5N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 17.8N 60.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 20.0N 66.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 22.5N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)

2017-09-03 10:46:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...IRMA'S INTENSITY CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS BACK TO CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH... ...INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 3 the center of Irma was located near 18.0, -47.5 with movement WSW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Tags: summary hurricane irma