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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-03 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 030232 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 The cloud pattern of Irma has not changed significantly in structure today. The eye continues to become apparent and then hide under the convective canopy, and this has been the observed pattern for the past 24 hours or so. Dvorak estimates go up and down with the presence of the eye, but an average of these numbers supports an initial intensity of 95 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane will help with the intensity estimate on Sunday. I hesitate to speculate too much about the environment that Irma is embedded within. All of the standard ingredients necessary for strengthening are forecast to be at least marginally favorable, but none are expected to be hostile for intensification. The NHC forecast, which in fact is similar to the previous one, continues to be a blend of the statistical models and the explosive strengthening shown by the regional hurricane and global models. The subtropical ridge building to the north of Irma has been steering the hurricane toward the west or 260 degrees at 12 kt. The ridge is forecast to amplify even more, and this flow pattern will force the hurricane to dive west-southwestward for a couple of days. Irma should then begin to gain latitude once it reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 3 days. The confidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since all of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other. After 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the northern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and becomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the ECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models. The confidence beyond 3 days is then much lower. Tonight's NHC forecast was adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to another small shift of the guidance envelope. The forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCX. While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.3N 46.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 17.8N 48.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.2N 50.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 16.7N 52.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 17.7N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 19.9N 64.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 22.5N 69.5W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2017-09-03 04:31:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 030231 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 10(28) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 11(37) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 8(38) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 7(46) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 6(25) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 5(35) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 48(55) 3(58) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 2(35) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 35(45) 1(46) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 40(63) X(63) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 30(36) X(36) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 31(50) X(50) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) X(27) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) X(34) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-03 04:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE IRMA HEADING WESTWARD WITH 110 MPH WINDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 2 the center of Irma was located near 18.3, -46.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 15
2017-09-03 04:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 030231 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 ...HURRICANE IRMA HEADING WESTWARD WITH 110 MPH WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 46.2W ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Irma. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 46.2 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a motion just south of due west is expected for the next 48 h. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Irma is currently a small-size hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 15
2017-09-03 04:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 030231 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 03 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 46.2W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 46.2W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 45.6W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 17.8N 48.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.2N 50.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.7N 52.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N 54.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.7N 59.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.9N 64.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 46.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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