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Hurricane Irma Forecast Advisory Number 14
2017-09-02 22:38:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 022038 TCMAT1 HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.0W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.4N 48.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N 50.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 44.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-02 17:03:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 15:03:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 15:23:40 GMT
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-02 16:56:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 021456 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 Hurricane Irma continues to display an eye within a small central dense overcast in the visible and infrared imagery from the GOES and METEOSAT satellites. Dvorak current intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS ADT have not changed, so the intensity remains 95 kt. The environment in which Irma is embedded shows mixed signals for the next few days. While the vertical shear remains low through Monday, the SSTs are lukewarm and mid-level humidities are dry. (Indeed an overnight SSMIS microwave pass showed a distinct finger of dry air wrapping around the south side of Irma not far from its inner core.) However, after the waters warm and the atmosphere moistens at days 3-5, the shear is forecast to go up. The guidance has substantial spread between Category 2 and 4 by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM/DSHP statistical techniques and the HWRF dynamical model and is unchanged from the previous advisory. Irma is finally moving slightly south of due west at 13 kt. A large, building Azores-Bermuda high should turn Irma toward the west-southwest at a slower rate of speed during the next two days. By days 3 to 5, Irma should be rounding the southwestern periphery of the high and start turning back toward the west-northwest. The track guidance is in tight agreement with this scenario and the official forecast is a simply an update from the previous advisory. Irma is a small hurricane, as observed by ship BATFR17 and the overnight ASCAT scatterometer pass with tropical-storm-force winds extending out at most about 60 nm. The official size forecast is based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 18.8N 43.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.5N 45.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.0N 47.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.4N 49.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.1N 51.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 17.4N 56.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 19.2N 60.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2017-09-02 16:54:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 021454 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 9(27) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 9(39) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 6(30) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-02 16:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AS A SMALL HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 2 the center of Irma was located near 18.8, -43.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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