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Hurricane Irma Graphics
2017-09-02 22:49:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 20:49:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Sep 2017 21:22:54 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Irma (AT1/AL112017)
2017-09-02 22:46:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 2 the center of Irma was located near 18.5, -44.6 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Irma Public Advisory Number 14
2017-09-02 22:46:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 022045 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 14...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 Corrected to add west in motion paragraph ...IRMA MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 44.6W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Irma. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 44.6 West. Irma is moving a little south of due west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Irma is currently a small hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 70 miles (110 km). However, the hurricane is expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-02 22:40:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 022040 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017 Hurricane Irma continues to display an eye within a small central dense overcast, although the eye has been going through periods where it becomes less well defined. The satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 90 kt, while the latest CIMMS ADT and satellite consensus technique estimates ARE 95-105 KT. Since there has been little overall change in organization since the last advisory, the initial intensity remains 95 kt. The environment in which Irma is embedded continues to show mixed signals during the forecast period, and the intensity guidance responds to this by ranging between little and slow intensification. The hurricane is currently suffering some impact of sea surface temperatures of about 27C and mid-level dry air entrainment. Later in the period, Irma should encounter warmer water and increasing moisture at a time when the vertical wind shear may be increasing. Given the uncertainty on when all of the ingredients may come together, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous forecast and calls for gradual intensification through the next 5 days. An alternative forecast scenario is that Irma gets significantly stronger than forecast near the end of the forecast period if the shear is less than currently expected. The initial motion remains 265/13. A large and building subtropical ridge should steer Irma generally west-southwestward during the next two days or so. Between 72-120 h, Irma should be rounding the southwestern periphery of the ridge and start turning back toward the west-northwest. While the track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, from 72-120 h there has been a westward shift of the guidance that results in the new forecast track coming 30-60 n mi closer to the Leeward and Virgin Islands than in the previous advisory. This latter portion of the track lies near the center of the guidance envelope, but with the ECMWF and corrected consensus models to the south and the GFS to the north. While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance suggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to the Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip currents. Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify where and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and listen to any advice given by local officials. 2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will have on the Bahamas and the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 18.5N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 18.0N 46.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.4N 48.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.0N 50.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.8N 53.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 17.5N 57.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 19.5N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 22.0N 68.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Irma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2017-09-02 22:38:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 022038 PWSAT1 HURRICANE IRMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 02 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS ...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 15(29) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 16(36) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 8(47) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 4(35) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 3(49) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 3(28) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) 3(40) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 2(26) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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