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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2013-07-24 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 242045 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 6 5 6 5 7 TROP DEPRESSION 5 22 24 19 22 17 20 TROPICAL STORM 92 71 64 63 59 60 57 HURRICANE 4 4 6 14 13 18 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 4 5 12 12 15 14 HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 2 1 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 3

2013-07-24 22:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 242044 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 31.4W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 31.4W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 34.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.8N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.5N 44.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 51.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.6N 58.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 31.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)

2013-07-24 17:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Jul 24 the center of DORIAN was located near 14.3, -29.9 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 2

2013-07-24 17:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241430 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 ...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2013 SEASON FORMS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING. AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.9 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY AS DORIAN MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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