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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 4
2013-07-25 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 250246 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013 ...TRADE WINDS PUSHING DORIAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 33.2W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.2 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2013-07-25 04:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 250246 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0300 UTC THU JUL 25 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 3 4 6 TROP DEPRESSION 2 8 12 15 13 14 18 TROPICAL STORM 92 78 71 64 60 59 58 HURRICANE 7 13 15 18 24 23 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 11 13 16 20 20 17 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-24 23:07:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2013 20:46:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2013 21:03:44 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-24 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 24 the center of DORIAN was located near 14.6, -31.4 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 3
2013-07-24 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 242045 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013 ...DORIAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 31.4W ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.4 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS DORIAN MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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