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Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-27 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Jul 26 the center of DORIAN was located near 17.9, -48.1 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 12
2013-07-27 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270232 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 ...DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 48.1W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-07-27 04:32:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 270232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0300 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 17 19 22 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 49 45 41 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 33 34 36 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-07-27 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270231 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0300 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 48.1W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 48.1W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 48.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-26 23:08:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2013 20:34:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2013 21:04:45 GMT
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