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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-07-26 22:33:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 262032 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 5 7 15 17 26 NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 37 35 39 38 42 NA TROPICAL STORM 85 57 54 42 41 31 NA HURRICANE 1 2 4 3 3 1 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 4 3 3 1 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 35KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-26 22:33:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 262032 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS BECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED AT THIS TIME. USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 17.8N 45.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.2N 48.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 18.6N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 19.0N 56.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 19.5N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.0N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 20.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-26 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Jul 26 the center of DORIAN was located near 17.8, -45.8 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 11
2013-07-26 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 262032 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 ...DORIAN WEAKENS WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 45.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DORIAN IS DISORGANIZED...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-07-26 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 262032 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 45.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 45.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 44.8W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.2N 48.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 52.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 56.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 45.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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