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Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-27 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Jul 27 the center of DORIAN was located near 18.2, -50.0 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 13
2013-07-27 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 270832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 ...DORIAN CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AS A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 50.0W ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-07-27 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 270832 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 50.0W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 50.0W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.6N 53.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.2N 57.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.8N 61.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.4N 64.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 71.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 50.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-27 05:07:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2013 02:33:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2013 03:03:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-27 04:32:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 270232 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 DORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS MEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A REMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND AS TROPICAL CYCLONE...REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...OR HOPEFULLY SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 19.3N 59.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0000Z 20.0N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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