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Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-27 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jul 27 the center of DORIAN was located near 18.5, -52.1 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Public Advisory Number 14
2013-07-27 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT34 KNHC 271457 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013 ...DORIAN STILL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 52.1W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.1 WEST. DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 14
2013-07-27 16:57:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 271457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 1500 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 52.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 52.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 51.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 55.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.5N 59.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.2N 63.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.7N 66.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.5N 73.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 52.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-27 11:07:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2013 08:33:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Jul 2013 09:03:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-07-27 10:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 270832 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 8 17 20 23 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 57 44 50 45 40 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 41 46 33 34 36 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 2 2 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 2 2 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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