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Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-26 17:08:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2013 14:36:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2013 15:04:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm DORIAN (AT4/AL042013)
2013-07-26 16:31:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 26 the center of DORIAN was located near 17.7, -43.4 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Graphics
2013-07-26 10:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2013 08:33:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2013 08:31:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-07-26 10:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260831 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 500 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...POSSIBLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION...AND THE CONVECTIVE AREA HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS. DORIAN IS BEING DRIVEN QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD PATH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...NAVGEM...AND HWRF ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE MODELS...FORECASTING THE STORM TO PASS NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA IN 4-5 DAYS. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE NORTHERNMOST...FORECASTING A POSITION NEAR THE BAHAMAS IN 5 DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DORIAN SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS CONTINUING SHEAR DURING THIS INTERACTION...THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...THE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT 96 HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD DISSIPATE...EITHER FROM LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA OR FROM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE DUE TO THE CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.6N 44.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.3N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.9N 52.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 56.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.0N 63.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 21.5N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm DORIAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-07-26 10:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 000 FONT14 KNHC 260831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 6 8 9 8 11 TROP DEPRESSION 5 22 24 26 26 23 27 TROPICAL STORM 92 71 64 58 57 58 52 HURRICANE 4 4 6 8 8 11 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 4 5 7 7 10 9 HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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