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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-08-05 16:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051453 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Iselle has changed little in organization during the past six hours. The eye remains well defined, with cloud tops to -70C occurring in the eyewall. Analyses from the SHIPS model and from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicate 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear over the system. However, this has not yet disrupted the inner core. The initial intensity remains 110 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Iselle near 06/0600Z, which will provide ground truth for the intensity. The initial motion estimate is 270/8 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Iselle should strengthen during the next several days, which should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed. The track model guidance remains tightly clustered and forecasts Iselle to pass near or over the Hawaiian Islands in 72-84 hours. Based on this, the new forecast track is again just an update of the previous track, and it lies in the center of the track guidance envelope. The analyzed and 24-hour forecast shear have both increased since the previous advisory, and it is likely that Iselle will lose its annular structure later today or tonight. This should result in weakening along the lines of the previous forecast since a significant part of the circulation is over sea surface temperatures of less than 26C. The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain after 36 hours. The cyclone will be moving over increasing sea surface temperatures west of 152W. The dynamical models are in poor agreement on how much shear the Iselle will experience, with the UKMET forecasting strong shear while the GFS/ECMWF forecast less shear. One last factor is that the cyclone is likely to encounter a very dry air mass as it approaches Hawaii. The intensity guidance responds to these factors by diverging. The SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble forecast an intensity near 40 kt when Iselle gets near Hawaii, while the GFDL and HWRF forecast it to be a hurricane. The intensity forecast from 48-120 hours has been nudged upward in agreement with the LGEM model and the intensity consensus, and it calls for Iselle to be just below hurricane strength near Hawaii. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average intensity error is about 15 kt. In addition, the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area well away from the center. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Iselle. Future Public Advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3 and WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, while Forecast/Advisories will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP3 and WMO header WTPA23 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 16.0N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 141.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 17.6N 147.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 18.3N 150.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 20.0N 156.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII 96H 09/1200Z 21.0N 162.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 166.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-08-05 16:53:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051452 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 1 11(12) 10(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 145W 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 47(49) 1(50) X(50) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 3(42) X(42) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 4(44) X(44) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 6(35) X(35) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 10(37) X(37) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) X(33) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30) 1(31) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) HONOLULU 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) LIHUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-05 16:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 5 the center of ISELLE was located near 16.0, -139.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 21
2014-08-05 16:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051451 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...ISELLE CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 139.5W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.5 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. ISELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISELLE. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPA33 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 1100 AM HST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-08-05 16:50:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051450 TCMEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 1500 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 139.5W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 139.5W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 139.0W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.3N 141.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.6N 147.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.3N 150.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 156.5W...NEAR HAWAII MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N 162.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 166.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 139.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISELLE. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPA23 PHFO...BEGINNING AT 05/2100Z. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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