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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-08-29 10:37:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 290837 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is exposed to the east of a decaying and disheveled area of deep convection. An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the system's appearance has degraded since that time, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. This value is also in agreement with an average of the latest satellite intensity estimates, which range from 33 to 45 kt. Iselle is feeling the effects of about 25 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. Since the shear is expected to remain strong while Iselle heads for cooler waters and a drier air mass, steady weakening is anticipated. Iselle will likely become a tropical depression by tonight and a remnant low on Sunday. Most of the models show the remnant low dissipating in 3 days, and so does the official forecast. The compact tropical storm is moving northward at about 5 kt. A continued northward motion is expected for another day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest when Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system and moves in the low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been modified slightly based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.7N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 20.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 23.5N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1800Z 25.3N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2020-08-29 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 290837 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 115W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-29 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 the center of Iselle was located near 19.7, -115.1 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 12
2020-08-29 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 290837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2020 ...ISELLE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 115.1W ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 115.1 West. Iselle is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northward motion is expected to continue for another day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Iselle is expected to become a tropical depression tonight. The depression should then degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next couple of days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-08-29 10:37:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.1W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 115.1W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.7N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.5N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.3N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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