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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280831 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) ISLA CLARION 50 28 5(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA CLARION 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 31(32) 4(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-08-28 10:31:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 115.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 115.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 115.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)

2020-08-28 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ISELLE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Iselle was located near 17.9, -115.0 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 8

2020-08-28 10:31:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280831 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...ISELLE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...BUT EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 115.0W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 115.0 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward and then northwestward motion is expected during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but a gradual weakening trend should begin tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula through Sunday, and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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