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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 22:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 272031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 115.8W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.8N 114.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.8N 115.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 23.2N 116.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 16:52:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 14:52:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 15:38:05 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271450 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle consists of a rather ragged looking area of deep convection being sheared to the southwest of a partially exposed low-level center. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. Moderate-to-strong easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear will likely prevent Iselle from strengthening over the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat. However, the cyclone will then be moving over SSTs of only 26 C and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the deep convection to gradually dissipate, and the cyclone is expected to weaken this weekend before degenerating into a remnant low early next week. The latest NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN consensus and SHIPS guidance. Iselle is moving northeastward at 4 kt, embedded in a large monsoon gyre. The steering flow is forecast to become more southerly this weekend inside the gyre, resulting in a more northward motion. As the cyclone breaks north of the gyre, a turn to the northwest then west is anticipated while the system becomes steered by a low- to mid- level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in between the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the TVCX track consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.0N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 271450 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 7 28(35) 19(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 14(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-27 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Iselle was located near 17.0, -115.8 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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