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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-29 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 the center of Iselle was located near 21.0, -114.5 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 14
2020-08-29 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 292037 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 ...ISELLE BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 114.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 114.5 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected during the next several hours with this motion expected to continue through Sunday. This should be followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates that Iselle is becoming less organized, and it is expected to weaken to a depression late tonight or on Sunday. The depression should then degenerate into a remnant low later Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next couple of days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-08-29 22:37:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 292037 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.5W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.5W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 114.6W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.4N 114.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 24.8N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-29 16:34:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 14:34:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 15:24:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-08-29 16:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 291433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has changed little in organization since the last advisory, as the storm has a classic shear pattern in satellite imagery with the low-level center near the northeastern edge of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little in the last 6 h, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The cyclone has tracked a little to the right with the initial motion now north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. This should be short lived, and Iselle is expected to resume a northward motion later today or tonight. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track is tweaked a little from the previous forecast based on the initial position and motion. Iselle is moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and it continues to experience easterly vertical shear. This combination should cause steady weakening, and the new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in calling for the system to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h. The new intensity forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.3N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 22.8N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z 24.7N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0000Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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