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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-28 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COMPACT ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Iselle was located near 18.3, -115.3 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 16:46:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 281446 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...COMPACT ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 115.3W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 115.3 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Saturday morning followed by a northwestward motion on Sunday evening. Afterward, Post-Tropical/Remnant Low Iselle is forecast to turn west-northwestward in the low-level easterly flow. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are possible today, but a gradual weakening trend should commence later tonight. An observing site at Clarion Island, MX recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (65 km/hr) and a gust of 47 mph (80 km/hr). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula through Sunday, and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281445 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.3W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.3W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.2N 114.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.6N 114.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.2N 114.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.5N 115.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.1N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 10:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 08:33:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 09:31:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 10:32:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280831 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Iselle continues to produce deep convection near the center and on its west side. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to a moderate amount of easterly wind shear. An ASCAT-A overpass from a few hours ago showed maximum winds in the 45-50 kt range, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 50 kt. The intensity models suggest that little change in strength is likely today as Iselle remains in the current environment of easterly shear. However, gradual weakening should begin by tonight and continue through the weekend as Iselle moves over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the models, and predicts Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression in a couple of days and to a remnant low shortly thereafter. Iselle is moving slowly northeastward toward Tropical Storm Hernan located near the coast of west-central Mexico. Iselle should generally move northeastward to north-northeastward as it remains embedded in a trough with Hernan for about another day. Thereafter, Hernan is expected to dissipate and a low- to mid-level ridge should cause Iselle to turn to the northwest. This track keeps Iselle well offshore the Baja California peninsula. The models are in fair agreement, and this forecast lies close to the various consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on the aforementioned ASCAT data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.9N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.7N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.7N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 23.0N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 23.9N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 24.2N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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