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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-08-30 04:31:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 300231 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-08-30 04:30:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 300230 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SUN AUG 30 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 114.2W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 114.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.9N 114.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.5N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 115.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-29 22:39:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 20:39:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2020 21:24:37 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-08-29 22:38:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 292038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 Iselle has become less organized during the past several hours, as the area of convection southwest of the center is now smaller and farther from the center than previously. This is likely due to the combined effects of continued easterly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures under the storm. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 kt, but the tropical-storm-force winds are now occurring only over the southeastern quadrant. The initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/6 kt. Iselle should turn toward the north during the next several hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. The northward motion should continue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest as Iselle becomes a weak and shallow system. The new forecast track again has minor adjustment from the previous track based mainly on the initial position and motion. The shear and cooler water along the forecast track should cause Iselle to steadily weaken, and the new forecast track has no changes from the previous forecast. The forecast, which calls for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 24 h, to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h, and to weaken to a trough by 72 h, again lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.0N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.1N 114.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 23.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z 24.8N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/0600Z 25.4N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2020-08-29 22:38:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 292038 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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