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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-08-29 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 290231 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W AT 29/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 115.2W AT 29/0300Z AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 115.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.9N 116.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.6N 116.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 20:36:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 21:38:35 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 282032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 First light visible imagery shows that Iselle's center of circulation has once again reappeared to the northeast of the deep convective mass. Last night's briefly diminished shear interlude probably resulted in Iselle's peak intensity. For this advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt which is based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, a METOP-B ASCAT overpass containing 40-45 kt winds and a SATCON analysis of 42 kt. The northeasterly shear is forecast to persist through the 24 hour period and then decrease and veer from the southeast. At that time, however, Iselle will be traversing sub 25C sea surface temperatures and will be moving into a more dry and stable surrounding environment. As a result, Iselle should weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. The initial motion is estimated to be north-northeastward, or, 020/6 kt. A northward direction should commence Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward is forecast Sunday morning. As Iselle continues to weaken and degenerates to a remnant low, a turn toward the northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is expected to occur Sunday late night. The NHC forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX (FV3/ECMWF mean) and the NOAA HCCA consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.8N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 the center of Iselle was located near 18.8, -115.2 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...ISELLE PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 115.2W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 115.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A northward turn is expected by Saturday morning followed by a north-northwestward motion on Sunday morning. Afterward, Post-Tropical/Remnant Low Iselle is forecast to turn northwestward in the low-level flow. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Iselle should become a tropical depression Saturday night, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate early next week. An observing site at Clarion Island, MX recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/hr) and a gust of 48 mph (80 km/hr). Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula through Sunday, and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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