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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)

2020-08-26 22:46:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISELLE... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Iselle was located near 15.5, -116.8 with movement NE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 2

2020-08-26 22:46:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 262046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ISELLE... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 116.8W ABOUT 680 MI...1095 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 116.8 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2020-08-26 22:46:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 262046 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 15(24) 6(30) X(30) 1(31) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 2

2020-08-26 22:46:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 262046 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC WED AUG 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.8W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.8W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 16.8N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.3N 115.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.9N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.9N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 21.4N 114.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 22.1N 116.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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