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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)

2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 the center of Iselle was located near 16.2, -116.2 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 3

2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270257 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 26 2020 ...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 116.2W ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 116.2 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270257 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 116.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.3N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 113.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2020-08-27 04:58:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270257 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 11(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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