je.st
news
Tag: iselle
Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-08-28 22:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 282032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 34 50 18(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 115W 50 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-08-28 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 282031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.7N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.4N 116.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.1N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-28 16:51:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 14:51:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 14:51:20 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
iselle
Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-28 16:47:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 281447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Fri Aug 28 2020 GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery and a recent AMSR2 microwave overpass indicate that deep convection has been developing near the surface center during the past several hours. In fact, the microwave image showed a small, compact inner core defined by a partially closed eye-like feature. My initial thoughts were that this cloud feature is in the mid-portion of the atmosphere, but the lower 37 GHZ frequency confirmed very little vertical tilt. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are based on the shear scene-type which would yield a slightly lower intensity estimation. Consequently, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, but it could certainly be a little stronger based on the aforementioned polar low-orbiter pass. The FV3/GFS and ECMWF SHIPS statistical-dynamical intensity models show 20 to 30 kt of northeasterly shear persisting through the next few days, however, the UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals less than 20 kt. For now, based on what the large-scale models and the SHIPS models agree on, gradual weakening should begin by early Saturday morning and continue through Monday morning as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic temperatures and moves into a more thermodynamically stable surrounding environment. The NHC intensity is an update of the previous advisory, and calls for Iselle to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday evening. Based on the 0920 UTC AMSR2 pass, the initial position was adjusted to the northwest of the previous position and the forward motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 035/4 kt. A northward direction should commence by early Saturday morning, then a turn north-northwestward to northwestward is forecast during the 48-60 hr period. As Iselle continues to weaken and become a more shallower system, a turn toward the west-northwest, well offshore of the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula, is forecast to occur Monday morning. The NHC forecast is nudged to the left of the previous track forecast due the adjusted position, and is based on the HCCA and TVCE multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.3N 115.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.2N 114.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.6N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 22.2N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 23.5N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 24.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 24.4N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-28 16:47:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 281446 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 34 42 40(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 115W 50 1 19(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Sites : [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] next »