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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-08-28 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 280236 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Iselle continues to produce bursts of deep convection in an environment of moderate easterly shear, with the latest round of convection completely covering the low-level center. Since satellite classifications haven't changed much since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is left at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. There is some uncertainty in exactly how strong the shear currently is, with SHIPS diagnostics showing nearly 30 kt while UW-CIMSS is analyzing a little under 20 kt. A recent SSMIS pass showed some defined curved banding, so I'm inclined to think the shear is closer to the lower estimate. With that said, the SHIPS diagnostics do show the shear relaxing just a bit during the next 12-24 hours, which could allow Iselle to strengthen a little, and this scenario is supported by the latest HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, HCCA, and GFS model solutions. After that time, the shear is expected to strengthen again, and then Iselle will be moving over cooler waters. Therefore, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the previous one from 24 hours and beyond. Iselle is likely to lose all of its convection and become a remnant low in about 3 days and then open up into a trough by day 5. Iselle is embedded in an elongated mid-level trough which extends northeastward to Tropical Storm Hernan near the coast of Mexico, and its initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/3 kt. The interaction between the two tropical storms is expected to cause Iselle to continue moving north-northeastward or northward during the first 2 days. Once Hernan dissipates and Iselle weakens, a low-level ridge over northern Mexico should cause Iselle to turn toward the northwest and west on days 3 and 4. The track models have shifted a bit to the northeast after 48 hours, leaving the previous forecast near the left side of the guidance envelope, so the new NHC forecast was adjusted closer to the multi-model consensus aids during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 17.6N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 19.1N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 20.1N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 114.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/1200Z 23.2N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z 23.9N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-28 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 70 20(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA CLARION 50 22 15(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 16(16) 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... ...THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY LATE FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Iselle was located near 17.6, -115.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... ...THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY LATE FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 115.5W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 115.5 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday night. A northward and then northwestward motion is expected during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible overnight, but Iselle is expected to begin to gradually weaken late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula tonight and continue through Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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