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Tropical Storm Iselle Graphics
2020-08-27 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:33:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:33:51 GMT
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-08-27 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 272032 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Iselle Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Since the previous advisory, a new burst of deep convection developed near the center of Iselle the persisted for much of the morning. It was not until recently that the easterly shear has begun to push the convection to the west of the center. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass all agree that the initial intensity has increased to 45 kt. Moderate-to-strong easterly to northeasterly vertical wind shear should prevent Iselle from further strengthening over the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat. However, by that time the cyclone will then be moving over SSTs of only 26 C and into a more stable atmospheric environment. This should cause the deep convection to gradually dissipate, and the cyclone is expected to weaken late this weekend into early next week before degenerating into a remnant low. The latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance. Iselle continues moving northeastward at 4 kt, embedded in a large monsoon gyre. The steering flow is forecast to become more southeasterly this weekend inside the gyre, resulting in a gradual turn to the northwest. As the cyclone breaks north of the gyre and becomes shallow, a turn to the west is anticipated while the system becomes steered by a low- to mid- level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one due to a shift in the guidance, and lies in between the previous forecast and the various track consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 17.2N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.8N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.6N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 19.6N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 20.8N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 21.9N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 22.8N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 23.2N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z 23.1N 117.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-27 22:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Iselle was located near 17.2, -115.8 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 22:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 272032 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 115.8W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 115.8 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A gradual turn to the northwest is forecast to occur over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Iselle is expected to begin weakening by late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-08-27 22:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 272032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 7 28(35) 19(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 14(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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