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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2020-08-29 16:33:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 291433 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)

2020-08-29 16:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ISELLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... As of 9:00 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 the center of Iselle was located near 20.3, -114.7 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 13

2020-08-29 16:32:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 291432 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 900 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020 ...ISELLE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 114.7W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 114.7 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today with this motion expected to continue for another day or so. This should be followed by a turn to the northwest. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Iselle is expected to become a tropical depression tonight or Sunday morning. The depression should then degenerate into a remnant low later Sunday or Sunday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern and west-central coast of Mexico, as well as the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are expected to continue for the next couple of days and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-08-29 16:31:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 291431 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.7W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 114.7W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 114.8W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 24.7N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.4N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 114.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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