je.st
news
Tag: iselle
Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-08-05 10:55:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050855 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Although Iselle's eye remain large and distinct, cloud tops have been warming significantly since the previous advisory. Also, some westerly shear is beginning to impinge on the cyclone, and the CDO has become elongated a little in a northeast-southwest orientation. The aforementioned observations all suggest weakening, and this is noted by a decrease in the Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is, therefore, lowered to 110 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. After a slight jog to the west-southwest, Iselle appears to have returned to a due west course. The NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered and in excellent agreement on Iselle moving slowly westward for another 12-24 hours, and then turning more west-northwestward at a faster forward speed as the ridge to its north gradually strengthens. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and is close to the very reliable consensus model, TVCA. On the forecast track, the center of Iselle should move near or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands in 72-84 hours. Since Iselle is an annular hurricane, only slow weakening is forecast, especially since the vertical shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or less for the next 72 hours or so. The GFS-based SHIPS model is showing more significant weakening and makes Iselle a tropical storm in 36 hours, which seems premature. This is due in part to the SSTs being about 0.5 degree cooler in the model than what is currently observed along the cyclone's path. The official intensity forecast follows the consensus model, ICON, but is slightly higher to account for the low bias of the SHIPS model. Remnant low status is expected by Day 5. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of Iselle. However, it is important not to focus too closely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the average track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average intensity error is about 15 kt, and because the hazards of a tropical cyclone can extend over a broad area often well away from the center. Iselle is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility around 1800 UTC today. Once this occurs, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, will begin issuing advisories on Iselle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 15.9N 138.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 16.2N 140.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 16.7N 142.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 145.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 18.1N 149.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 19.7N 155.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 21.8N 166.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-05 05:21:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 02:40:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 03:09:16 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
hurricane graphics
graphics hurricane
Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-08-05 04:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050241 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 13(39) X(39) HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 14(34) X(34) SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 19(35) X(35) KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) KAILUA-KONA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 1(28) KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) KAHULUI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) LANAI CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 1(26) KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 1(23) HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) NIIHAU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-05 04:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POWERFUL HURRICANE ISELLE SLOWS DOWN... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 4 the center of ISELLE was located near 16.0, -138.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 135 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
iselle
ep4ep092014
Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 19
2014-08-05 04:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050240 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE ISELLE SLOWS DOWN... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 138.0W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.0 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. ISELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Sites : [14] [15] [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] next »