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Hurricane ISELLE Graphics
2014-08-03 23:21:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 20:39:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 21:09:23 GMT
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Hurricane ISELLE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-03 22:39:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032039 TCDEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 The cold cloud tops of Iselle's convection have suddenly begun to expand during the past few hours, suggesting that vertical shear is relaxing. The eye has become a little more distinct, and the hurricane appears to be taking on a more circular, compact shape. Current intensity estimates remain unchanged from earlier this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 100 kt. Regarding the compact shape of the hurricane, conventional and microwave images seem to suggest that Iselle is losing its convective banding features. And, for the first time, the Annular Hurricane Index is indicating that Iselle has a marginal annular structure. If it does in fact become annular, then the hurricane is likely to only gradually weaken during the next couple of days in an environment of light easterly shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures. Increasing vertical shear and even colder waters should induce a faster weakening trend after 48 hours, but most of the guidance still suggests that Iselle will maintain tropical storm status as it moves near the Hawaiian Islands on days 4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous one and lies very close to the LGEM and intensity consensus ICON for the entire forecast period. The latest center fixes suggest that Iselle jogged west- northwestward earlier today, but the estimated initial motion is now westward, or 280/9 kt. The hurricane is expected to slow down a little during the next 36 hours coincident with a developing break in the subtropical ridge. A mid-level high is then forecast to develop between Hawaii and California by day 3, which should steer Iselle at a faster rate toward the west-northwest through the end of the forecast period. There is very little spread among the track models, but the entire envelope has shifted northward on days 3 through 5. Further shifts could be required if the models continue their recent trends, but at this point Iselle is still a potential threat to the Hawaiian Islands later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 15.7N 133.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 15.8N 135.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 15.8N 136.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 15.8N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 17.5N 145.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 19.5N 151.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 21.5N 157.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane ISELLE (EP4/EP092014)
2014-08-03 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 3 the center of ISELLE was located near 15.7, -133.7 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 965 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane ISELLE Public Advisory Number 13
2014-08-03 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 032038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE ISELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014 ...ISELLE CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 133.7W ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST. ISELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISELLE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane ISELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-08-03 22:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 032038 PWSEP4 HURRICANE ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092014 2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) X(25) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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