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Hurricane FAY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2014-10-12 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 122033 PWSAT2 HURRICANE FAY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane FAY Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-10-12 22:31:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 122031 TCMAT2 HURRICANE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 60.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 61.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 200SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 190SE 150SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 60.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm FAY Graphics
2014-10-12 17:08:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 14:36:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 12 Oct 2014 15:04:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm FAY Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-10-12 16:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121435 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical, and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to hurricane status. A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in about 24 hours. Fay has turned to the right as anticipated, and the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 21 kt. Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east while embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 34.0N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 35.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0000Z 36.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 34.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/1200Z...absorbed by a front $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Storm FAY (AT2/AL072014)
2014-10-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FAY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 12 the center of FAY was located near 34.0, -62.8 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 986 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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