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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 24A
2014-10-18 13:44:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 181144 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...WEATHER IMPROVING IN BERMUDA AS GONZALO QUICKLY MOVES AWAY... ...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.9N 62.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Discussion Number 24
2014-10-18 10:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 180835 TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters. The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone dissipates in about 4 days. The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.7N 63.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 44.2N 54.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 49.7N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0600Z 53.0N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 56.0N 3.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Hurricane GONZALO Public Advisory Number 24
2014-10-18 10:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 180834 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014 ...GONZALO QUICKLY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 63.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NNE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION LIKELY ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT THE BERMUDA AIRPORT. A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H... WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT AN ELEVATED OBSERVATION SITE AT COMMISSIONER'S POINT BERMUDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL CONTINUE ON BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN NEWFOUNDLAND BY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS ON BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. RAINFALL...RAIN WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING ON BERMUDA AS GONZALO MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND BERMUDA. SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2014-10-18 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 180834 PWSAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 1( 1) 89(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 50(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 15(15) 42(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane GONZALO Forecast Advisory Number 24
2014-10-18 10:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 180833 TCMAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 0900 UTC SAT OCT 18 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS EFFECT FOR... * ARNOLDS COVE TO CHAPELS COVE NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 63.2W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......130NE 150SE 110SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 320SE 220SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 63.2W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 63.8W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 38.2N 60.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 44.2N 54.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 49.7N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 270SE 180SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 53.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 320SE 320SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 56.0N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 270SE 420SW 480NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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