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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 19
2018-08-11 16:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 115 WTPZ23 KNHC 111432 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 131.0W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 131.0W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 130.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 131.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-11 10:43:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 08:43:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 09:27:07 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-08-11 10:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 344 WTPZ43 KNHC 110841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 Kristy has weakened since the last advisory as the system moves over cooler sea surface temperatures, with the central convection becoming less organized. A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that the maximum winds have decreased to near 40 kt, and that the 34-kt wind radii are smaller than previously analyzed. Kristy will continue to move over cool sea surface temperatures during the forecast period. Thus, continued weakening is expected with the system now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The initial motion is now 345/6. As Kristy continues to weaken, the cyclone should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-level flow around ridging to the north. Then, as the system becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected, with this motion persisting through the remainder of the forecast period. The new track forecast, which is similar to the previous track, lies near the various consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 21.0N 130.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-08-11 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 086 FOPZ13 KNHC 110838 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-11 10:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY NOW WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 the center of Kristy was located near 21.0, -130.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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