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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 14
2018-08-10 10:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 249 WTPZ33 KNHC 100851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 ...KRISTY REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 129.8W ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 129.8 West. Kristy is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn back to the north with a decrease in forward speed on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. While little change in strength is expected today, there is still a chance that Kristy could become briefly become a hurricane this morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by tonight and continue through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 14
2018-08-10 10:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 778 WTPZ23 KNHC 100850 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 129.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 129.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-10 04:50:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Aug 2018 02:50:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Aug 2018 02:50:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-10 04:49:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 319 WTPZ43 KNHC 100249 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Recent 37-GHz microwave images show that Kristy's low-level structure has improved markedly with a solid cyan ring and multiple low-cloud spiral bands. Inner-core convection has increased too, and recent infrared satellite imagery is suggesting the possible development of a ragged eye. Although 00Z Dvorak estimates were a consensus T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, the continued improvement in structure supports an initial intensity of 60 kt. Given the cyclone's well-defined structure, Kristy could become a hurricane overnight or early Friday while it remains over sufficiently warm water and in a low-shear environment. After that time, cooler waters and gradually increasing shear will cause the winds in the circulation to slowly diminish, with deep convection likely dissipating, and Kristy becoming post-tropical, by 72 hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the guidance in the first 12 hours but then is similar to the previous forecast and close to the HCCA guidance and the ICON intensity consensus thereafter. Kristy is moving slightly east of due north, or 010/6 kt. There has been little change in the tune of the various track models. The GFS and HWRF continue to show Kristy being pulled north- northeastward by Tropical Storm John, while the ECMWF and UKMET models show less interaction and have Kristy turning west- northwestward by 36-48 hours with more ridging to the north. This might be a classic case of why the consensus approach can work so well. So far, with 72 hours of forecasts for Kristy under our belt, the GFS and the ECMWF have been the two worst-performing track models, each having a significant eastward and westward bias, respectively. The various consensus aids, on the other hand, have proven to be the most skillful so far. For that reason, the NHC track forecast continues to be down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCX aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 129.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-08-10 04:49:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 159 FOPZ13 KNHC 100249 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 13 45(58) 9(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) 20N 130W 50 1 11(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 130W 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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