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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 18
2018-08-11 10:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 989 WTPZ33 KNHC 110837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018 ...KRISTY NOW WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 130.4W ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 130.4 West. Kristy is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and a slower forward speed are expected later today, and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected by Sunday. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Kristy is forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 18
2018-08-11 10:37:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 990 WTPZ23 KNHC 110837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.4W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.4W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-11 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 02:38:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 03:25:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-08-11 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 298 WTPZ43 KNHC 110237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low. Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid- level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the trends in the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Latto
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-08-11 04:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 807 FOPZ13 KNHC 110236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 130W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG/LATTO
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