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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 9 the center of Kristy was located near 16.9, -130.1 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 12
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 386 WTPZ33 KNHC 092036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 ...KRISTY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 130.1W ABOUT 1375 MI...2210 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 130.1 West. Kristy is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the north-northeast is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible tonight or Friday, followed by gradual weakening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 12
2018-08-09 22:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 387 WTPZ23 KNHC 092036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 130.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 130.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 130.1W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 130.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-09 16:32:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 14:32:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 15:44:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 11
2018-08-09 16:31:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 898 WTPZ43 KNHC 091431 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Deep convection has continued to increase in association with Kristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON value. Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy reaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is close to the IVCN intensity model consensus. A weakening trend is likely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to become post-tropical later this weekend. Center fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an uncertain 345/4 kt. There continues to be a lot of spread in the track guidance models. The GFS and its ensemble, along with the HWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy being drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast. The UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the north and northeast as those other models. Since John is weakening, it may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially later in the forecast period. For now, the official forecast is shifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as shown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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