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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 15
2018-08-10 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 848 WTPZ23 KNHC 101438 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 129.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 129.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-10 10:54:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 10 Aug 2018 08:54:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 10 Aug 2018 08:54:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 14
2018-08-10 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 302 WTPZ43 KNHC 100853 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy has become a little better organized since the last advisory, as there is now a small central dense overcast with outer banding in the southern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and recent scatterometer data suggests winds are below hurricane strength. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 60 kt. There is still some chance that Kristy could become a hurricane during the next few hours. After that, the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters and a steady weakening is forecast. The new intensity forecast, which lies in the middle of the intensity guidance, is nudged downward a little from the previous forecast, although it still calls for Kristy to become a remnant low by 72 h. The initial motion is 005/7. The track guidance has made a notable westward shift since the previous advisory, as the models generally show less interaction between Kristy and Tropical Storm John. However, there is still a significant spread between the northward tracking GFS and the more westward UKMET and ECMWF. The new forecast track is also shifted westward from the previous track, but it lies to the east of the various consensus models. An additional westward adjustment to the track may be required later if the current model trends continue. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2018-08-10 10:51:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 508 FOPZ13 KNHC 100851 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 42 30(72) 2(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) 20N 130W 50 1 13(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 130W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-10 10:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 the center of Kristy was located near 18.2, -129.8 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 991 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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