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Summary for Tropical Storm Kristy (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-10 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KRISTY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 9 the center of Kristy was located near 17.4, -129.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kristy Public Advisory Number 13
2018-08-10 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 753 WTPZ33 KNHC 100248 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kristy Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 ...KRISTY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 129.9W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kristy was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 129.9 West. Kristy is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected overnight, followed by a turn back to the north with a decrease in forward speed on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional is strengthening is possible, and Kristy could become a hurricane overnight or early Friday before it reaches cooler water. Gradual weakening is expected to begin later on Friday and continue through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-08-10 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 752 WTPZ23 KNHC 100248 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.9W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 129.9W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 130.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 27.0N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 129.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics
2018-08-09 22:39:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 20:39:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Aug 2018 21:43:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 12
2018-08-09 22:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 528 WTPZ43 KNHC 092037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018 Kristy's deep convection has been waxing and waning, with an overall decrease a few hours ago followed by a recent increase near the center. The advisory intensity is kept at 55 kt, in agreement with objective ADT values from UW/CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB. Kristy is over marginally warm waters, in low vertical shear, and with fairly well-defined upper-level outflow. There is a window of opportunity of about a day for additional intensification, and the official intensity forecast follows the intensity model consensus and the LGEM guidance. A weakening trend is likely to commence by Friday night, and Kristy should degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late in the weekend. Visible imagery and some microwave data provided more accurate center fixes than earlier today, and the initial motion is a more confident 360/6 kt. The main steering mechanisms for Kristy are a weak ridge to the north and the large circulation of weakening John to the northeast. There continues to be significant diversity in the track models. The ECMWF and UKMET models, and their ensembles, are substantially to the left of the other guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON much more to north and east, presumably due to interaction with John. Since the weakening John may not be that much of an influence, the official forecast is roughly in the middle of these two extremes and close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 14/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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