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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-09-01 22:40:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 012040 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 15N 110W 50 30 X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) 15N 110W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 110W 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLA SOCORRO 34 10 14(24) 4(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA CLARION 34 3 24(27) 58(85) 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 52(53) 18(71) 3(74) X(74) X(74) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 26(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) 15N 115W 34 2 6( 8) 8(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) 20N 115W 34 X 7( 7) 27(34) 21(55) 5(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 47(53) 26(79) 1(80) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 24(43) 1(44) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 16(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-09-01 22:39:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 012039 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 109.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Juliette Graphics
2019-09-01 16:41:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 14:41:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Sep 2019 14:41:43 GMT
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-09-01 16:41:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011441 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning. Satellite and microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has formed, with a large band on the east side. The current wind speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching up with this storm. There's been a significant change to the intensity and size forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a stronger and larger hurricane in about a day. This is consistent with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core, which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace. Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid intensification indices are all showing this chance. Thus the forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be required this afternoon. Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning. A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-09-01 16:41:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 011440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 15N 110W 50 41 7(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) 15N 110W 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 110W 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 11(13) 6(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) 57(64) 23(87) 2(89) 1(90) X(90) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 19(19) 37(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) 15N 115W 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 27(43) 11(54) 1(55) X(55) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) 36(72) 4(76) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 27(35) 1(36) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 22(34) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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