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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-03 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:32:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:32:29 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-03 10:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 030831 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 64 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 70 6(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 115W 50 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 46(51) 41(92) 2(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 49(58) 6(64) X(64) X(64) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 6(41) X(41) X(41) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) X(30) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-03 10:31:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030831 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night, and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also the recently improved eye pattern. The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south. Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-03 10:30:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Juliette was located near 18.2, -114.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-03 10:30:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030830 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Juliette could become a category 4 hurricane later today or early Wednesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue through Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy automated weather station located on Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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