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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-09-03 10:30:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030830 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Juliette Graphics
2019-09-03 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 02:36:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 03 Sep 2019 03:31:56 GMT
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Hurricane Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-03 04:33:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is undergoing a rapid intensification evolution. An earlier GMI microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off, and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 100 kt. Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so. Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit further. Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier marine layer air mass. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest. There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48 hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the TVCE consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Hurricane Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-03 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY... ...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 17.8, -114.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Juliette Public Advisory Number 8
2019-09-03 04:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY... ...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 114.0W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 114.0 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The hurricane is expected to continue at about this forward speed toward the northwest or west-northwest for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is anticipated tonight and Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected to commence by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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