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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-02 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020840 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 After struggling to strengthen during the previous 12-h period due to the entrainment of mid-level dry air, a strong burst of deep convection, accompanied by frequent lightning and cloud tops near -90C, has developed near the well-defined low-level circulation center. A nearly circular CDO feature has also formed over the center, and the upper-level outflow has improved and expanded in all quadrants. During the past few hours, SSMI/S and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate that a primitive mid-level eye feature had formed, and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS SATCON were T3.5/55 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or rationale. A deep-layer ridge anchored to the north of Juliette is expected to change little, driving Juliette on a general west-northwestward track throughout the 5-day period. As a result, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly clustered model guidance. Now that a nearly complete mid-level eye feature has formed, rapid intensification is expected to occur during the next 24 hours due to Juliette being embedded within very favorable environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear near 5 kt, an unhindered outflow pattern, and a moist mid-level environment, along with traversing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C. Thereafter, a slower rate of strengthening is expected through 36-48 hours due to the cyclone moving over marginal SSTs. Steady weakening is forecast on days 3-5 when Juliette will be moving over sub-26C SSTs despite low shear conditions. The new official intensity forecast is a little above all of the available intensity guidance, and shows the same peak intensity as the previous advisory, except that the time of occurrence has been moved forward by 24 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP1/EP112019)
2019-09-02 10:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...JULIETTE STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 16.2, -111.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-02 10:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 020839 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 111.8W ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 111.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is expected to become a hurricane later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-09-02 10:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 020839 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2019-09-02 10:40:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 020839 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 110W 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 19 4(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 34 31 59(90) 5(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) ISLA CLARION 50 1 70(71) 9(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ISLA CLARION 64 X 39(39) 12(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 15N 115W 34 5 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 115W 34 5 28(33) 20(53) 3(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 58(80) 3(83) 1(84) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 47(50) 2(52) X(52) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 34(41) 5(46) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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