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Summary for Tropical Storm Juliette (EP1/EP112019)

2019-09-02 16:41:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...JULIETTE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Juliette was located near 16.7, -112.6 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Juliette Public Advisory Number 6

2019-09-02 16:41:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021441 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...JULIETTE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 112.6W ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 112.6 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west- northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is forecast for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Juliette is forecast to become a hurricane later today, with further strengthening anticipated on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Juliette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2019-09-02 16:41:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 021441 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLA CLARION 34 78 21(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 50 15 71(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) ISLA CLARION 64 2 58(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 115W 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 115W 34 6 49(55) 12(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) 20N 115W 50 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 115W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 32(40) 49(89) 1(90) X(90) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 53(59) 1(60) X(60) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 1(35) X(35) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 1(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Advisory Number 6

2019-09-02 16:40:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 051 WTPZ21 KNHC 021440 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 70SE 30SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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